Two small snow chances this coming week

Models are trending toward a lower chance.

Monday Night

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – We are looking at two snow chances this coming work week. The first is only for the northeast corner of Middle Tennessee on Monday night.

Late afternoon through the evening hours, snow flurries and snow showers could give a dusting a few of those areas, particularly on the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures will drop below freezing overnight, so there could be a few slick spots on roadways in that part of the mid-state through Tuesday morning.

The other snow chance could affect parts of Middle Tennessee late Thursday night through Friday morning as an arctic front drops into the mid-state. Newer models are showing a diminishing chance of accumulating snowfall. Be aware that we are still three and a half to four days out, so there could likely be changes.

But for now, the two most popular weather models used for 4-7 days out, the GFS and the European (ECMWF), disagree. One has a light snow in eastern areas and the other has very little

Here is the GFS Model forecast:

GFS MODEL 6:00PM FRIDAY SNOW TOTALS

The European Model (ECMWF) has very little during the same time period

Here is the European Model forecast:

ECMWF MODEL 7PM FRIDAY SNOW TOTALS

When you look at these models in the long range, you need to take away the “generalities” rather than “specifics” AND look for continuity between the two (what they agree on).  When they have a degree of continuity it gives the forecaster more confidence.  In this case they disagree so there is a lot of uncertainty.

It is too early to forecast accumulations accurately, and be aware that these models will likely change to some degree (or even flip-flop on the snow chance!) as we approach late week.

However, we want to give you a heads up that travel problems could develop late Thursday night into Friday morning, with temperatures likely to fall below freezing by Friday morning.