Wednesday: Discussion on storm chances for Sunday night, December 13

Much depends on how much the humidity can rise

GFS Model Forecast for Sunday Evening

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – Over the next several days, a developing southerly flow will push temperatures to near 70 degrees by the weekend.

This should lay the groundwork for a line of thunderstorms along the next cold front expected to arrive Sunday evening. This time of the year, when temps get warm, there is always the worry for the possibility for severe weather.

Storm Prediction Center's Severe Outlook For Sunday Evening
Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Outlook For Sunday Evening

Although the Storm Prediction Center’s “Day 5” outlook for Sunday night is initially showing the severe chance to our south, we will still be monitoring the situation for the possibility that some of the severe weather could reach a little farther north into Middle Tennessee.

Much depends on whether we can get high enough humidity from that strong southerly flow to create the instability required for severe storms.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center thinks not.

GFS Forecast For Dew Points Sunday Evening
GFS Forecast For Dew Points Sunday Evening

However, the GFS Model is showing some 60 degree dew points pushing into Middle Tennessee late in the day and evening.

During the cold season, when wind dynamics can be strong, dew points in the 50s have often been enough to produce severe weather. It should be noted that often the models “over do” the northern extent of the moist air. But there should be a solid three days of fairly strong southerly flow.

As usual, we will be keeping you posted on News 2 and online at wkrn.com/weather.

For weather geeks, although the CAPE is forecasted to be low, less than 100 j/kg (despite higher surface dew points), the 1000-500 mb Bulk Shear should be in the 75-80 knot range.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s