NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – As a cold front drops southward through the Ohio Valley, it will bring thunderstorms into Middle Tennessee on Monday.
The biggest threat with a few of the storms will be damaging winds and hail. Although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, the dynamics of the atmosphere are more conducive to straight line winds.
The timing is more for the afternoon and early evening hours, but there are some models that try to slip some showers and thunderstorms into the area during the late morning hours.
Early rains could lower temperatures and inhibit a few of the afternoon storms, BUT with fairly strong winds aloft, a few of the PM storms could be strong despite any cooling.
One note: Often, people let their guard down when the tornado threat is low. But many people are killed or injured each year by falling trees and limbs, so take straight line winds seriously. As I’ve said before, if the winds are strong, what difference does it make if they are going in a circle or not?
Check the latest forecast wkrn.com/weather.
For an updated list of weather alerts, check wkrn.com/alerts.
For weather geeks:
GFS CAPE is pretty high at 4pm Monday, running 2000-3000 j/kg. NAM even higher to 3500 j/kg.
GFS and NAM 0-500mb Bulk Shear: 25-30 kts.
0-3km Helicity 50-100 m2/s2 during the afternoon (tornado threat low) 100-150 m2/s2 after dark, but heating less by then.