Progress made in weather forecasting shown by sub-tropical storm Ana

How things have improved over 35 years

GFS Model 7 day model forecast
ECMWF Model 7 day forecast
ECMWF Model 7 day forecast

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) —  News 2’s Jeff Morrow, formally with The Weather Channel, and I got into this business when atmospheric modeling was in its infancy.

We were saying the other day that when we were young forecasters there was no way that we would be able to talk about a possible tropical or sub-tropical development forming out of an old frontal boundary draped across the Caribbean/Cuba/Bahamas a full 4-7 days in advance. And in May?

But indeed, that is not only what the GFS and ECMWF models forecasted, but even our own “Predictor”.

In school, we had to learn all the basic mathematical equations and theories that go into the models. It was calculus from one end of the blackboard to the other, and we all couldn’t wait to graduate and never have to solve a differential equation again!

But our teachers knew that this was the future of weather forecasting.

Although as forecasters, we don’t actually do the calculations ourselves (we look at the maps from each model’s output), we get to reap the benefit of the decades of work done by the atmospheric modelers who developed (and continue to improve) these models.

They are the real heroes!

News 2's Predictor last Sunday
News 2’s Predictor last Sunday
Hurricane Center path for "Ana"
Hurricane Center path for “Ana”

 

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