Although we may not be looking at epic flooding like 2010, three weather systems this week could bring totals of 3-4″ of rain (or more) by week’s end, which could cause some localized flooding.
The first rain chance comes overnight Sunday night through parts of Monday, with only small amounts of rain.
The second chance comes Monday night through all of Tuesday and Tuesday night. That could produce 1-2″ of rain across the area, leaving saturated ground and continued above normal rivers and streams in Middle Tennessee.
The third rain chance could last for 2 & 1/2 days, starting Thursday, and lasting into early Saturday. That could bring an additional 1-3″ of rain (total for the week 3-4″ plus).
This very well could result in some localized flooding from local streams, creeks, and rivers.
On Saturday, we talked about some comparisons to 2010, noting that the odds of repeating that event are slim.
I talked with Sam Shamburger at our National Weather Service about some of the differences between that event and what we have in store later this week.
Although he noted that some flooding could occur, “several factors aren’t like the May 2010 flood situation. First, the moisture levels will not be nearly as high, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s and low 60s (versus high 60s and 70s), and precipitable water values will be much lower (1.5 inches versus over 2 inches in the May flood). Second, the low level jet will not be as strong as in the May flood, with the GFS and ECMWF indicating 850mb winds of 40-50 knots at times next week (versus ~70 knots in 2010). Finally, there is no well-defined warm front setting up west to east across our area, unlike in the May flood where one of the biggest meteorological factors was a strong southerly low level jet perpendicular to a west to east warm front/outflow boundary located in Middle Tennessee.”
I’d say Sam has done his homework! Nonetheless, he still wants folks to heed caution later this week, and never try to cross a flooded roadway. That’s how most deaths occur. Remember, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown”.