Saturday Update: Looking Ahead To Severe Weather Chances

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A classic spring severe weather event will begin to unfold in the Great Plains on Saturday evening (graphic 1) before shifting eastward towards Middle Tennessee.

Here’s how I think it will unfold for the Mid South and bear in mind that the timing and details could change, so keep up with the latest.

1)  On Sunday, some scattered t’storms could push into the area during the afternoon and again overnight into Monday morning.  These first two rounds could possibly bring a strong storm or two with gusty winds and hail, BUT

2)  I am more concerned with what could follow during the day on Monday from midday through the afternoon and evening hours.  This is when supercell thunderstorms could develop that could produce significant tornadoes.

3)  Unfortunately, on Tuesday we could possibly see more severe weather develop, as a front does not lower the dew points and temperatures until late Tuesday night.  Details on Tuesday remain to be seen.

The Storm Prediction Center brings their “Slight Risk” (that term is misleading) into western Middle TN Sunday night into Monday morning (graphic 2).

They put the “Slight Risk” in place for all of Tennessee on Monday-Monday night with a “Moderate Risk” for our western counties (graphic 3).

Graphic 4 shows the Monday afternoon and evening round of storms of most concern.  This will follow a morning line of storms that should leave some steamy sunshine in its wake to prime the afternoon and evening storms. 

For weather geeks:

Monday 4pm-7pm:

NAM: MUCAPE 1,500-2,000 j/kg, 0-500 mb bulk shear  50-60kts, 0-3 km Helicity 200-250 m2/s2

GFS:  NAM: MUCAPE 1,000-1,500 j/kg, 0-500 mb bulk shear 50-55kts, 0-3 km Helicity 200-250 m2/s2

NAM based on 12z Saturday run.
GFS based on 0z Saturday run.

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