I am starting to get a little concerned about the possibility for severe storms on Monday during the morning to midday time period.
A surface low will be passing just to our northwest leaving Middle TN on the warm moist side. Graphic #1.
0-500 mb”Bulk Shear” is a meteorological parameter that shows the difference in winds from the surface to about 18-19,000 feet.
The 2nd graphic has those values running from 70 to 95 knots. That's a little high.
The actual winds in the jet stream at 18-19,000 ft. could be as high as 125 mph. Graphic # 3
The question is, “Will the surface moisture return quickly enough for this system to work with?”
Although as of early this morning (Sunday) The Storm Prediction Center does not have us under a “risk” area, they do mention this:
…NRN MIDDLE TN…KY…SWRN OH…
“COLD PROFILES ALOFT AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
HAIL. SMALL SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
WILL ALSO FAVOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.”
Should severe storms develop, the time period would be roughly between 7am-1pm.
We also need to be on the lookout for some localized flooding in our southeast & south counties tonight through Monday.
Stay with News 2 for the latest.