October reflection, November and December predictions

October reflection, November and December predictions (Image 1)

October ended with temperatures that were cooler than average across the Mid-South. The final ten days of the month were quite a see-saw: after four days of “Indian Summer” in the lower 80s, Nashville endured a six day stretch of below-average temperatures as Sandy moved up the East Coast.

3.83″ of October rain was tallied at the Nashville Airport, which is 26% more than usual. Thanks to a wet September, the year-long rainfall total is now 39.73″ (about 1″ above-average).

November 1st brought Nashville's first official freeze of the season, as temperatures dropped to 30° in the city and the middle 20s in many communities across Middle Tennessee.

The temperature outlook for November calls for warmer-than-average weather across Tennessee. The attached image shows a mild anomaly in the Central Plains that extends into the Mid-South. Based on the observed weather of the past three decades, the normal high temperature in Nashville falls from the middle 60s to the middle 50s over the course of the month. Given the long-range forecast, perhaps we'll enjoy some 70° days from time to time this go-around.

The second image shows a rather abrupt change to the weather pattern come December. Colder-than-average weather is expected across the eastern half of the nation then. In Nashville, the average high temperature falls from the 50s into the 40s through the course of the month. It sure looks like we'll have colder outbreaks than that from time to time, which might provide us with opportunities for brushes with winter weather systems as we head toward Christmas.

Of course, none of this is set in stone. If you like cold weather, though, you have to be encouraged by the long-range look for the final month of 2012.


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